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【A388】著名历史热带气旋再分析最佳路径发布专贴

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之前开了两个贴子，第一个贴子事Real-time（虽然现在基本上废了），第二个帖子事2020 WPAC BST专贴（还会继续更新），现在开出历史热带气旋的专贴我们即将放出第一个再分析的历史热带气旋。
IP属地:江苏1楼2021-01-14 09:38回复
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    IP属地:江苏2楼2021-01-14 09:38
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      事
      IP属地:北京3楼2021-01-14 09:46
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        【WP162016 Meranti “莫兰蒂”】
        最大风速：180节（+10）
        最低气压：872百帕（-23）
        ACE=30.18
        Peak 0913/12Z 180kts 872mb
        Landfall
        Itbayat, Philipines 0913/1735Z 170kts 876mb
        Kinmen-Quanzhou, Fujian-China 0914/1810Z 110kts 943mb
        Xiang'an-Xiamen, Fujian-China 0914/1900Z 105kts 946mb
        IP属地:江苏6楼2021-01-14 09:59
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          【WP162016 Meranti “莫兰蒂”】
          WP, 98, 2016090712, , A388, 0, 150N, 1452E, 10, 1009, DB, 0, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , INVEST, PSTN GOOD,
          WP, 98, 2016090718, , A388, 0, 147N, 1435E, 15, 1008, DB, 0, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , INVEST, PSTN FAIR,
          WP, 98, 2016090800, , A388, 0, 138N, 1426E, 15, 1007, DB, 0, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , INVEST, PSTN GOOD,
          WP, 98, 2016090806, , A388, 0, 130N, 1428E, 15, 1007, DB, 0, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , INVEST, PSTN FAIR,
          WP, 98, 2016090812, , A388, 0, 133N, 1431E, 15, 1007, DB, 0, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , INVEST, PSTN FAIR,
          WP, 16, 2016090818, , A388, 0, 137N, 1426E, 20, 1006, DB, 0, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , SIXTEEN, PSTN FAIR,
          WP, 16, 2016090900, , A388, 0, 140N, 1422E, 20, 1005, DB, 0, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , SIXTEEN, PSTN FAIR,
          WP, 16, 2016090906, , A388, 0, 143N, 1419E, 20, 1005, DB, 0, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , SIXTEEN, PSTN FAIR,
          WP, 16, 2016090912, , A388, 0, 147N, 1415E, 25, 1004, TD, 0, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , SIXTEEN, PSTN GOOD,
          WP, 16, 2016090918, , A388, 0, 150N, 1409E, 25, 1003, TD, 0, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , SIXTEEN, PSTN FAIR,
          WP, 16, 2016091000, , A388, 0, 153N, 1401E, 30, 1002, TD, 0, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , SIXTEEN, PSTN FAIR,
          WP, 16, 2016091006, , A388, 0, 155N, 1389E, 35, 1000, TS, 0, NEQ, 0, 70, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN FAIR,
          WP, 16, 2016091012, , A388, 0, 157N, 1375E, 45, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 120, 0, 70, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
          WP, 16, 2016091018, , A388, 0, 159N, 1365E, 55, 991, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 120, 80, 90, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
          WP, 16, 2016091018, , A388, 0, 159N, 1365E, 55, 991, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
          WP, 16, 2016091100, , A388, 0, 163N, 1357E, 65, 984, TY, 34, NEQ, 140, 120, 80, 120, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
          WP, 16, 2016091100, , A388, 0, 163N, 1357E, 65, 984, TY, 50, NEQ, 60, 50, 40, 40, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
          WP, 16, 2016091100, , A388, 0, 163N, 1357E, 65, 984, TY, 64, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
          WP, 16, 2016091106, , A388, 0, 168N, 1346E, 70, 980, TY, 34, NEQ, 140, 110, 70, 100, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
          WP, 16, 2016091106, , A388, 0, 168N, 1346E, 70, 980, TY, 50, NEQ, 60, 60, 50, 50, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
          WP, 16, 2016091106, , A388, 0, 168N, 1346E, 70, 980, TY, 64, NEQ, 45, 45, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
          WP, 16, 2016091112, , A388, 0, 173N, 1331E, 85, 970, TY, 34, NEQ, 120, 80, 60, 90, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
          WP, 16, 2016091112, , A388, 0, 173N, 1331E, 85, 970, TY, 50, NEQ, 70, 60, 50, 60, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
          WP, 16, 2016091112, , A388, 0, 173N, 1331E, 85, 970, TY, 64, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
          WP, 16, 2016091118, , A388, 0, 177N, 1318E, 105, 952, TY, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 70, 100, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
          WP, 16, 2016091118, , A388, 0, 177N, 1318E, 105, 952, TY, 50, NEQ, 70, 70, 60, 60, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
          WP, 16, 2016091118, , A388, 0, 177N, 1318E, 105, 952, TY, 64, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 40, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
          WP, 16, 2016091200, , A388, 0, 180N, 1304E, 120, 935, TY, 34, NEQ, 130, 100, 90, 110, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
          WP, 16, 2016091200, , A388, 0, 180N, 1304E, 120, 935, TY, 50, NEQ, 80, 70, 60, 70, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
          WP, 16, 2016091200, , A388, 0, 180N, 1304E, 120, 935, TY, 64, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 40, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
          WP, 16, 2016091206, , A388, 0, 183N, 1292E, 140, 918, ST, 34, NEQ, 120, 110, 100, 110, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
          WP, 16, 2016091206, , A388, 0, 183N, 1292E, 140, 918, ST, 50, NEQ, 80, 80, 70, 70, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
          WP, 16, 2016091206, , A388, 0, 183N, 1292E, 140, 918, ST, 64, NEQ, 60, 60, 50, 50, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
          WP, 16, 2016091209, , A388, 0, 185N, 1286E, 160, 906, ST,
          WP, 16, 2016091212, , A388, 0, 188N, 1280E, 165, 897, ST, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 90, 110, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
          WP, 16, 2016091212, , A388, 0, 188N, 1280E, 165, 897, ST, 50, NEQ, 80, 70, 70, 80, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
          WP, 16, 2016091212, , A388, 0, 188N, 1280E, 165, 897, ST, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 50, 60, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
          IP属地:江苏7楼2021-01-14 10:00
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            （接上楼）
            WP, 16, 2016091215, , A388, 0, 190N, 1274E, 160, 897, ST,
            WP, 16, 2016091218, , A388, 0, 193N, 1267E, 160, 896, ST, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 90, 110, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
            WP, 16, 2016091218, , A388, 0, 193N, 1267E, 160, 896, ST, 50, NEQ, 80, 70, 70, 80, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091218, , A388, 0, 193N, 1267E, 160, 896, ST, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 50, 60, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091221, , A388, 0, 195N, 1260E, 160, 893, ST,
            WP, 16, 2016091300, , A388, 0, 197N, 1254E, 165, 891, ST, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 110, 110, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
            WP, 16, 2016091300, , A388, 0, 197N, 1254E, 165, 891, ST, 50, NEQ, 80, 70, 70, 80, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091300, , A388, 0, 197N, 1254E, 165, 891, ST, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 50, 60, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091303, , A388, 0, 199N, 1247E, 165, 891, ST,
            WP, 16, 2016091306, , A388, 0, 201N, 1241E, 165, 888, ST, 34, NEQ, 150, 120, 120, 140, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
            WP, 16, 2016091306, , A388, 0, 201N, 1241E, 165, 888, ST, 50, NEQ, 80, 70, 70, 80, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091306, , A388, 0, 201N, 1241E, 165, 888, ST, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 50, 60, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091309, , A388, 0, 202N, 1235E, 175, 877, ST,
            WP, 16, 2016091312, , A388, 0, 204N, 1229E, 180, 872, ST, 34, NEQ, 150, 120, 120, 130, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
            WP, 16, 2016091312, , A388, 0, 204N, 1229E, 180, 872, ST, 50, NEQ, 90, 80, 80, 90, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091312, , A388, 0, 204N, 1229E, 180, 872, ST, 64, NEQ, 70, 60, 60, 70, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091315, , A388, 0, 206N, 1223E, 175, 874, ST,
            WP, 16, 2016091317, 35, A388, 0, ITBAYAT, PHILIPPINES, 170, 876, ST,
            WP, 16, 2016091318, , A388, 0, 208N, 1218E, 170, 877, ST, 34, NEQ, 140, 130, 130, 105, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
            WP, 16, 2016091318, , A388, 0, 208N, 1218E, 170, 877, ST, 50, NEQ, 90, 80, 80, 80, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091318, , A388, 0, 208N, 1218E, 170, 877, ST, 64, NEQ, 70, 60, 60, 70, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091321, , A388, 0, 211N, 1214E, 160, 884, ST,
            WP, 16, 2016091400, , A388, 0, 215N, 1209E, 145, 897, ST, 34, NEQ, 105, 140, 140, 140, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
            WP, 16, 2016091400, , A388, 0, 215N, 1209E, 145, 897, ST, 50, NEQ, 90, 90, 90, 80, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091400, , A388, 0, 215N, 1209E, 145, 897, ST, 64, NEQ, 70, 70, 70, 60, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091403, , A388, 0, 220N, 1202E, 135, 910, ST,
            WP, 16, 2016091406, , A388, 0, 225N, 1198E, 125, 923, TY, 34, NEQ, 75, 120, 110, 130, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
            WP, 16, 2016091406, , A388, 0, 225N, 1198E, 125, 923, TY, 50, NEQ, 55, 80, 80, 65, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091406, , A388, 0, 225N, 1198E, 125, 923, TY, 64, NEQ, 50, 65, 65, 55, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091409, , A388, 0, 230N, 1194E, 120, 931, TY,
            WP, 16, 2016091412, , A388, 0, 234N, 1190E, 115, 937, TY, 34, NEQ, 65, 120, 95, 65, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
            WP, 16, 2016091412, , A388, 0, 234N, 1190E, 115, 937, TY, 50, NEQ, 50, 75, 65, 50, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091412, , A388, 0, 234N, 1190E, 115, 937, TY, 64, NEQ, 45, 60, 45, 40, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091415, , A388, 0, 239N, 1187E, 110, 941, TY,
            WP, 16, 2016091418, , A388, 0, 244N, 1184E, 110, 943, TY, 34, NEQ, 100, 110, 75, 45, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN GOOD,
            WP, 16, 2016091418, , A388, 0, 244N, 1184E, 110, 943, TY, 50, NEQ, 65, 65, 55, 35, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091418, , A388, 0, 244N, 1184E, 110, 943, TY, 64, NEQ, 45, 45, 40, 30, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091418, 10, A388, 0, KINMEN-QUANZHOU, FUJIAN-CHINA, 110, 943, TY,
            WP, 16, 2016091419, , A388, 0, XIANG'AN-XIAMEN, FUJIAN-CHINA, 105, 946, TY,
            WP, 16, 2016091421, , A388, 0, 248N, 1180E, 80, 964, TY,
            WP, 16, 2016091500, , A388, 0, 252N, 1176E, 60, 983, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 120, 60, 60, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN FAIR,
            WP, 16, 2016091500, , A388, 0, 252N, 1176E, 60, 983, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 25, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI,
            WP, 16, 2016091503, , A388, 0, 256N, 1172E, 40, 994, TS,
            WP, 16, 2016091506, , A388, 0, 260N, 1169E, 30, 998, TD, 0, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN POOR,
            WP, 16, 2016091512, , A388, 0, 273N, 1170E, 20, 1002, DB, 0, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN POOR,
            WP, 16, 2016091518, , A388, 0, 288N, 1176E, 20, 1003, DB, 0, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN POOR,
            WP, 16, 2016091600, , A388, 0, 303N, 1185E, 25, 1003, EX, 0, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , , W, , , , , MERANTI, PSTN POOR,
            IP属地:江苏8楼2021-01-14 10:00
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              【关于莫兰蒂登陆厦门定强问题】
              这份最佳路径中，登陆厦门时我们并没有定超强台风。
              首先需要注意，厦门风速实测最大的站点是五缘大桥，10分钟平均风速达99.1节，直接换算成2分钟平均是可以支持52-55m/s登陆定强的。但部分人可能没有注意，五缘大桥站点海拔超过40米，已经足以对风速实测结果造成影响。NHC研究海拔折扣表中认为40-50米海拔已经能够让风速实测比海平面（10米）高出9%左右，因此即便看似高度较低的风速实测也需要打一定的折扣。
              所以最后我们给的登陆厦门时强度是1分钟105节。
              WP, 16, 2016091419, , A388, 0, XIANG'AN-XIAMEN, FUJIAN-CHINA, 105, 946, TY,
              IP属地:江苏10楼2021-01-14 10:13
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                dd
                IP属地:上海来自Android客户端11楼2021-01-14 10:42
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                  建议开分析我的帖子
                  IP属地:浙江来自Android客户端12楼2021-01-14 23:43
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                    一巅和两次巅峰中间那段这么强
                    IP属地:广东13楼2021-01-15 17:26
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                      我们不会定强（悲），但还是想提供一点可能。
                      10L说，无缘大桥站的海拔超过了40m，个人认为这个数据存疑。
                      首先，五缘大桥站到底在不在桥上？海沧大桥站也是个桥梁站点，位于海沧大桥钢索最低处的平台上，但五缘大桥站很明显不在桥中，一是卫星图像和一些五缘大桥的高清图片显示在五缘大桥主跨两侧与主桥连接处只有航灯（也有可能是普通照射灯，存疑），二是根据知天气决策版的标准，应在五缘大桥引桥结束处（图1）。
                      也就是说，测站最有可能在图2红框部分内的某一点，而这里靠海，海拔不超过10m。
                      综上，我们认为测站海拔＞40m存疑。
                      IP属地:福建来自Android客户端14楼2021-01-21 12:27
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                        补图（）
                        IP属地:福建来自Android客户端15楼2021-01-21 12:27
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                          【【气象信息】莫兰蒂登陆实测汇总——百度贴吧】https://mbd.baidu.com/ma/s/DTMg6RqK
                          来自iPhone客户端16楼2021-01-22 02:47
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                            我们那里复更了，期待大灰机也继续！
                            IP属地:北京17楼2021-01-22 10:20
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                              莫兰蒂登陆厦门强度调升至110节
                              IP属地:江苏18楼2021-02-21 20:06
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